Western Democracy

James DeLong has a very good piece at TCS Daily that nominally discusses the Google in China situation, but has a very good analysis of the state of democracy in the West. And the picture isn't all that great.

Men Are Happier People

A friend forwarded this to me. I don't usually forward such things on to others, but this one's pretty funny.

Men Are Just Happier People-- What do you expect from such simple creatures? Your last name stays put. The garage is all yours. Wedding plans take care of themselves. Chocolate is just another snack. You can be President. You can never be pregnant. You can wear a white T-shirt to a water park. You can wear NO shirt to a water park. Car mechanics tell you the truth.

The world is your urinal. You never have to drive to another gas station restroom because this one is just too icky. You don't have to stop and think of which way to turn a nut on a bolt. Same work, more pay. Wrinkles add character. Wedding dress~$5000. Tux rental~$100. People never stare at your chest when you're talking to them. The occasional well-rendered belch is practically expected. New shoes don't cut, blister, or mangle your feet. One mood all the time. Phone conversations are over in 30 seconds flat. You know stuff about tanks.

A five-day vacation requires only one suitcase. You can open all your own jars. You get extra credit for the slightest act of thoughtfulness. If someone forgets to invite you, he or she can still be your friend. Your underwear is $8.95 for a three-pack. Three pairs of shoes are more than enough. You almost never have strap problems in public. You are unable to see wrinkles in your clothes.

Everything on your face stays its original color. The same hairstyle lasts for years, maybe decades. You only have to shave your face and neck. You can play with toys all your life. Your belly usually hides your big hips One wallet and one pair of shoes one color for all seasons You can wear shorts no matter how your legs look. You can 'do' your nails with a pocket knife. You have freedom of choice concerning growing a mustache. You can do Christmas shopping for 25 relatives on December 24 in 25 minutes.

Google in China

A lot of bloggers are howling mad at Google for agreeing to open a version of its system for China that includes restrictions on content consistent with Communist leadership's demands. Instapundit has some links to some examples. In principle, I understand this anger. I certainly believe in the free exchange of ideas and information and oppose any type of government mandated censorship. As an American, I take these freedoms for granted and recognize their intrinsic value.

But what is Google to say to the people of China? Your government won't allow free access to all information, so we will give you no information? Values are important, but we also live in a flawed world. Sometimes we have to accept an imperfect solution because there is no perfect solution. Giving access to some information is better than having access to no information. As Google's statement says,

Filtering our search results clearly compromises our mission. Failing to offer Google search at all to a fifth of the world's population, however, does so far more severely. Whether our critics agree with our decision or not, due to the severe quality problems faced by users trying to access Google.com from within China, this is precisely the choice we believe we faced. By launching Google.cn and making a major ongoing investment in people and infrastructure within China, we intend to change that.

Is this really all that different from the US trade policy with the PRC, whereby our nation does business with the Communists? And what have been the results of that trade? A China that is moving--slowly, certainly--away from Communism and gradually adopting more of a market economy, with a growing middle class. China is becoming a valued friend in Asia, particularly in dealing with North Korea.

Compromise is dangerous. Once one starts compromising, it's easy to continue and harder to hold to principles. This nation does not have a great history in that area, from treating with dictators and tyrants like Saddam Hussein when it suited our policies to not responding adequately to China's clampdown on dissent at the Square. But holding steadfastly to an idealistic, black and white view of the world is just as dangerous.

ParisDailyPhoto

Since I'm on a photo kick, ParisDailyPhoto publishes daily photos from Paris, and they are pretty good.

Rome Pictures

I just posted some Paris pictures, and mentioned my Roman Holiday. So why not post some of those, too. I traveled to Rome in August, 1997. Living in the heart of Europe (Germany), getting around the continent was quite easy, as the German army showed once or twice as I used to joke. The European rail system is fantastic. So I took a week off of work, hopped on a train, and got off in the center of Rome. As a history buff, this was obviously a key place to visit. I shot about 13 rolls of slide film on this trip, all of which has been lost unfortunately. So all I have are some prints I made for friends. At least they are the best of the lot, though there was plenty that didn't get printed.

Again, not everything has been scanned, but here are a few. Other pictures can be viewed in the online photo album I'm building up.

	This is a shot of the Villa D'Este (I believe; it has been a long time) at Tivoli. I was on a guided tour to Hadrian's palace and we stopped here. This place is known for its fountains. Note the rainbow near the base of one of the fountains.
	This is another fountain at Villa D'Este.
	This is a view up the Spanish Steps in Rome.
	This is the interior of the Pantheon. What's interesting to me about this building is that there's a hole in the roof that allows the sunlight in. That's the effect I was trying to capture here, with the fairly dark interior pierced by the bright sunlight coming through the roof.
	The heart of imperial Rome was the Forum Romana. This is where most of the great Roman buildings were located. This is a view of the forum.
	As I also tried in Paris the year before, I attempted nighttime photography in Rome. This is a fountain in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican.

That's a few decent pictures from my trip. I hope to get more scanned over time and will load to the album.

Paris Pictures

A couple of weeks ago, I linked to a blogger who is showing his Paris pictures. I have a couple of good ones too. These were taken in 1996 so they are scanned from prints rather than being digital pictures. I attended a conference at Jodrell Bank Observatory, near Manchester, England and took a few days vacation in London and Paris. My most vivid memory is the train trip to London from Manchester. There was, maybe, a quarter inch of snow and the whole country just seemed to shut down. What should have been a fairly short train ride ending up taking most of the afternoon. That night, even the Tube was running very late.

The photo results of the trip were disappointing, though the trip itself was great. I haven't ever gotten all the decent ones scanned, so this post will just have a couple. Someday I'll get the others scanned and will post. I'll also post my photos from a trip to Rome sometime.

	The first one is my favorite, the Eiffel Tower at night, shot from the Trocadero. I remember carrying my equipment up there to take the picture, and while I'm setting up a woman trying to hawk postcards of the Tower. I thought it was funny and told her I was making my own. In both London and Paris, I was trying my hand at night photography, and this was one of the best results. Unfortunately, the original slide is long lost and all I have is one print.
	This is the Tower in the day. The light isn't great, but I like the perspective.
	This is a more artistic picture taken through an arch at the Louvre. This has always been one of my favorite pictures. I was into using objects like arches or trees to frame my images.

Like I said, just a couple of pictures, but ones I'm proud of. I would love to be a travel blogger. Travel the world with a laptop and a digital camera, take pictures, and write about the experiences. Ah well.

The Goal of Democracy

It's interesting. One of the main neocon arguments for the war in Iraq was that bringing democracy to Iraq would trigger a domino effect, releasing a "wave of democracy" across the Middle East. When we saw elections in Saudi Arabia, the popular movement in Lebanon, etc., these were held as examples of this process in action. Now, democracy in the Palestinian Authority has resulted in Hamas winning a majority in the PA government. The US response? Cutting off aid and a refusal to deal with the government the people of the PA have chosen.

I thought this is what we wanted. Didn't the president himself say, "For the Palestinian people, the only path to independence and dignity and progress is the path of democracy." But when they take a step on that path, we smack them down?

The lesson here is that democracy does not necessarily result in a government that is automatically aligned with our interests. This is a key, unstated part of the neocon theory, that a democratic Iraq would automatically be a key ally in the region. Regarding Iraq, the president said last year, "Iraq will be a free nation and a strong ally in the Middle East -- and this will add to the security of the American people." But the PA shows the fallacy of that argument. They might be free, but freedom and a democratically elected government does not mean they will be an ally.

Iran is another example. Iran is a stable, functioning democracy, and is hardly an ally.

So, while democracy may be an admirable goal in Iraq, the expectation that this will bring us a strong ally may be mistaken.

Digital Content Protection Act would be Consumer Disaster

Andrew Kantor has a good article on how the entertainment industry is trying to supress technological advancement for the sake of protecting its outdated business model. Of course, the industry has always tried to do that, always looking to protect the status quo. The irony is that when they have lost those battles and have been forced to adapt, they have found ways to turn the new technology into money. When the VCR came out, it met with forceful opposition from the industry. After they were forced to accept it, the home video market took off to the point where now it may in fact be the primary revenue source for movie studios, more than the theaters. Imagine if they had won way back when? Technological advancement is good for the consumer, and for the industry. They need to start embracing technology rather than trying to squash it.

Minority Coaching

Peter King writes

In a league in which approximately two-thirds of the players are minorities, the lack of progress on the minority coaching front is a black eye, particularly when three black men -- Lovie Smith, Tony Dungy and Marvin Lewis -- did some of the best coaching in the NFL this year. I thought the NFL was becoming a progressive league in the hiring arena. But with no additional minority hires as head coach -- and, just as important, no increase so far in key front-office positions for minorities -- the league has taken a giant step backward this month.

This is the problem with a quota approach to hiring. King equates being progressive with hiring new minority coaches each year. Taking the logic espoused here to its obvious conclusion, being progressive means having only minority coaches. What sense does that make?

I thought teams were supposed to hire the best coaches available, as determined by the GM and owner? If the best coach happens to be white, should that be held against him? I may agree that it is curious some guys who have been touted as head coaching prospects, and who also happen to be black or Hispanic, didn't get an opportunity this year. And I may question that some of the men hired were actually the best available (Mike McCarthy?). But that does not equate to a "giant step backward", just because no one hired a black man to head their team this year.

Shocking News

Two totally shocking recent news stories:

1. Paris Hilton looks dumb
   
2. Osama bin Laden wants to attack US
   

Who would ever believe it? A dumb blonde who appears to be a dumb blonde, and a terrorist who wants to commit acts of terrorism. What is the world coming to? And this breaking news from southeast Wisconsin. I can provide eyewitness testimony that the sun rose in the sky this morning. The wonders never cease.

As James Bond said in Goldfinger, shocking.

NFL 2005 Conference Championship Predictions

Before talking about this week's games, I want to talk a bit about Peyton Manning. After yet another premature departure from the playoffs, the questions about Manning's ability to win it all will come up again. Those are legitimate questions. There is no question that Manning is a great quarterback. But come playoff time, teams and players have to raise their game up a notch or two. Not all talented players can do that. This is why I would build a team around Tom Brady before Peyton Manning, and consider Brady the better quarterback. Brady has proven that he can raise his game, Manning has not. Now, one will point out that Brady lost this year. Obviously, but everybody loses sometime. If Brady never wins another playoff game, he's still proven himself more than any active QB in the league. Manning has yet to do so. And the losses quite often are on his shoulder. Brady had a bad game. Manning has yet to prove he can play a good game at this level.

The Patriots have created the blueprint on how to beat Manning. And I think part of the reason that blueprint works is psychological. Manning does not come across to me like a cocky or arrogant player. He's out to win, not put up big stats. In last year's run for the TD passing record, he said many times that if defenses were going to just sell out to defend the pass, he would just hand off and go home a winner. I believe him. But the Patriot blueprint has an element of defiance in it, as if the team is taunting Manning. "We're so not scared of you, we're going to blitz you to death and toss you around some. We dare you try to beat us with your passing. Go ahead, make our day." And like some petulant child, Peyton gets suckered in, tries to force plays downfield, and makes mistakes. (Brett Favre has the same flaw, especially as he gets older. Look at the 2001 playoff game with the Rams. With every interception he threw, he just tried that much harder to force throws, resulting in more interceptions.)

Manning blames "protection problems" on the loss. Well, yeah. They stubbornly kept their three wide receiver packages out there, with five offensive linemen and maybe a running back to block seven pass rushers. Rather than adapting (that's my theme of the playoffs, I guess: adaptability) to what the Steelers (and before them, the Chargers and, of course, the Patriots) were doing to them, they kept trying to do their thing. Can you imagine Brady doing that? No way. The Patriots would have started running and endless stream of screen passes and short crossing hot routes to take advantage of what the Steelers were doing.

Now, one may blame the offensive coordinator rather than Manning. On most teams, that would probably be true. But you have to wonder about who is really in control in Indy. Think about the famous moment in the Steeler game when Manning waved off the punt team to go for it on 4th down. That's an example of Manning overriding his head coach on a question of game strategy. Zimmerman talks about the last Colt drive of the game. At second down on the Steeler 28, which is a long field goal attempt, the sound strategy is to take some shorter passes to move the ball into position for a short, comfortable field goal. One has to believe the Colt coaching staff was calling for just that. What's Manning do? Override them again and go twice for the kill shot, missing both times. Going for the kill shot was Manning's attempt at giving the finger to the Steelers after what they had done to him all day.

Until Manning learns to control that part of his personality, teams like Pittsburgh and New England will continue to bait him into the mistakes that will cost the Colts big games. He will continue to come up short when it really matters.

Now, onto this week....

Steelers @ Broncos
I've struggled with this pick all week. Not that I couldn't make the pick. Rather, I couldn't believe the pick I was coming up with and was trying very hard to go the other way. I really want to pick Denver. They are at home, they are the second seed in the conference, and the 6th seed has never gone to a Super Bowl (of course, that's because the 6th seed has never made the conference title game, so historical precedent can be thrown out). But every time I look at the game, I end up with Pittsburgh. Why?

Experience for one thing. Pittsburgh has been to this level many times, with every key player on the roster having at least one conference title game appearance, and many with several. Obviously, they've lost those games, but they have been there. Denver hasn't, and few players on the roster have.

The Steelers have played outstanding football for well over a month. They have played very well in both postseason games this year. Denver did not acquit itself well last week. They did not beat New England. The Patriots beat themselves with unforced turnovers. (You can't credit Denver with the turnovers because they didn't force the turnovers. The Patriots just screwed up.) More generally, the Broncos have not played well in the postseason since Elway left. The last two years, Indy blew them away. This year New England could have blown them away. Pittsburgh is hot, Denver is lucky. The Broncos did win 13 games this year, so obviously they are a capable team. But, like I said before, you have to raise the level of your game in the postseason, so those 13 wins are not all that meaningful.

New England did a good job defensively, limiting Denver to 286 total yards of offense, with slightly less than 100 yards from the vaunted running game. Let's face it, Denver had two one yard TD drives (one on the Bailey return, the other on the questionable Samuel interference call which put the ball on the 1). Alright, that second one wasn't really a one yard drive, but all but one yard came on the interference penalty. Pittsburgh's defense can do pretty much the same thing New England did. They will take away the Bronco running game, and force Plummer to beat them.

On the other hand, the Denver defense did a pretty poor job, giving up 420 yards. If New England hadn't bungled the game so badly, it would have been a lot more. Roethlisberger showed last week he can dazzle with the passing game, too. So the Steelers should be able to put up some good numbers on offense. Besides, the Steeler offensive line is very familiar with the Bronco defensive line, since they were all in Cleveland last year and faced Pittsburgh twice. The Steeler line knows how to open the holes against them for the running game.

Every time I look at it, the Steelers come out on top in just about every comparison. Defense, running game, passing game. All favor Pittsburgh. The only knock I can come up with is that Cowher has a well known history of losing these games. But the past does not dictate the future, and Cowher has never had a team with the potency of this one. He's had better defenses before, but never an offense this good. So, there we have it. Prediction: Steelers.

Panthers @ Seahawks
I predicted this matchup at mid-season, and went with Carolina then to win. Am I going to stick with that? I cannot. This game seems much easier to pick than the AFC game. The Panthers are hurting. As I wrote earlier, the win over Chicago was costly. DeShaun Foster is out, Julius Peppers hurt his shoulder and has missed practice this week, just to name two big ones. With both teams at full strength, this would be a very tough game. But with Seattle healthy on both sides of the ball, they have the advantage over Carolina. Not necessarily a huge advantage, but an advantage nonetheless. The Panthers still have a strong defense, even with Peppers out or at half speed. But Seattle does too. The Panthers still have a strong running game with Goings. But Seattle does too, and it's better.

The one thing that gives me pause in this prediction is Steve Smith. Chicago has a fantastic defense. They knew Delhomme was going to Smith as often as possible. And Smith still got open time and time again. If Chicago couldn't stop him, will Seattle?

In the AFC analysis, I mentioned experience. Clearly that factor goes Carolina's way in this game. They were in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, and many of the players on today's team were on that team as well. Seattle has fewer players who have played in a game of this magnitude. I do believe experience is a factor, but only one of many.

Carolina will definitely make a go of it. They are a very good team, very well coached, and they play well on the road. They are in the same spot they were 2 years ago, playing on the road against the top seed. But Seattle is not Philadelphia. The Seahawks will be able to make a few more plays than Carolina will, and that will be the difference. Prediction: Seahawks.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 7-1

The Belichick Division

The New York Jets have hired Patriot defensive coordinator Eric Mangini as their new head coach. The AFC East is quickly becoming the Belichick division. Bill himself heads New England, former coordinator Nick Saban (from the Cleveland days) runs Miami, and former coordinator Mangini now heads the Jets. Only the Bills are without a Belichick protege, but they are still looking. Romeo at least got out of the division.

Quick Thoughts on the Divisional Playoffs

A few quick thoughts on the 2005 divisional playoffs.

• The Patriots outplayed Denver on Saturday. They played well enough to win. But the Patriots know as well as anyone that you can't turn the ball over the like that and win the game, especially at this level. Every time it seemed like they had the game under control, some would drop the ball. Muffing a punt? Oh my.
• Those who insist on calling the Patriot run a dynasty are already proclaiming the end of the dynasty. Well, the Steelers lost playoff games in the middle of their dynasty. Dallas lost in the middle of theirs. Missing out on Super Bowls XI, XII, and XXIX didn't derail those dynasties. I do think this is the end of the Patriot run, for a little while at least. The defense revolves around the linebackers, and the linebackers are getting older. One, Johnson, retired last year. Can Willie and Tedy be far behind?
• Way to go Pittsburgh! My one failed pick of the playoffs, but I don't mind. The difference between this Steeler team and all of the other Steeler playoff teams in the Cowher era is at quarterback. Previous teams has stellar defense and brutal running games, but lacked when the QB had to step back and pass. That's been true ever since Bradshaw retired. Between Terry and Ben, the best QB they've had is Neil O'Donnell. I'm not knocking Neil, but he was not someone you wanted to rely on to win a game. Manage the game, OK. Win, nope. With Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh finally has that mix of running and passing that can kill you again. The Colt game was one they would have lost in any previous year back to the Bradshaw days, because they would never have been able to mount that kind of passing attack. Full disclosure for anyone who might think I know what I'm talking about vis à vis personnel. When the Steelers took Ben, I thought it was a stupid move. They had Tommy Maddox! What did they need another QB for? Right out of the "Get Your Story Straight" commercials.
  
• I've railed on this subject before, but teams have to learn they cannot back off an opponent, especially a very good opponent, to sit on a lead for a long period. The Steelers come out attacking on both offense and defense and build a 21-3 lead, in complete control of the game. Then what do they do? Go conservative. Stop blitzing, run every down regardless of down and distance. And what happens? What should have been a comfortable win, and a statement game at that, turns into a nailbiter which all too easily could have gone the Colts' way. If Ben doesn't make that tackle on the fumble return at the end, Indy wins. Like I said before, "If a game plan has gotten you to the brink of blowing out an opponent, it should be obvious that it's working, so keep going!"
• Carolina won, as expected, and will face the Seahawks in the NFC title game, as expected. But it was a costly win, with Foster, Peppers, and other key players going down. They may all end up playing, but I'm not sure they will be at 100%, and that will drag the Panther game down a bit.
• 2005 is 1997 redux. In the 1997 conference finals, it was Cowher's Steelers against Shanahan's Broncos to succeed New England as AFC champions, and a Mike Holmgren team (Packers) vying for the NFC title. In case anyone forgets, Holmgren and Shanahan won their respective conference titles and did battle in Super Bowl 32.
• Chicago made a better game of it than I would have thought. Grossman certainly did what he could, but why did the Bears not stick with the run? It's their bread and butter, and Jones had pretty good success doing it. It's not like they were getting blown out. Well, by Bear standards, I guess they were. I understand wanting to change tendencies and do things the opponent does not expect. But ultimately you have to go with what works, and running the ball worked for Chicago.
• Update The Colt performance is a perfect demonstration of what I tried to say in my predictions. One significant difference between a good and a great team is the abilty to adapt. The Colts came into the game with a game plan. Lots of spread formations. Typical Colt ball. This plan was not working thanks to the heavy Pittsburgh blitz. Rather than adapt their offense to bring more max protect formations, they continued trying to make their plan work. On this topic, I always think back to Super Bowl 38. Both the Patriots and the Panthers came in with very similar game plans: heavy dose of running and big defensive push up front to disrupt the other team's running game. This lead to a pretty boring start to the game. Neither offense did much of anything. Then, both teams adapted to the situation, realizing that, with all the defensive emphasis on the run game, things would be open in the secondary, so they both opened up the passing game. This transformed a boring defensive game into an exciting offensive game which either team could have legitimately win. That's the key to New England's run: they were never irrevocably tied to a game plan and could adapt to whatever worked to win the game. Indy did not show that ability against the Steelers (who on the other hand went totally against their offensive grain to bring a pass-heavy attack). The more imaginative team won.
• Update New England must be kicking themselves. Not only did they play well enough to win the game, then threw it away, but if they had won they would be hosting the AFC title game with the Steelers having taken care of the Colts for them. Everything fell right for the Patriots to go to their third straight Super Bowl, and they threw the game away.
  

The News Media and Facts

I'm sorry, but I don't think it's too much to ask for the MSM to at the very least get simple facts straight. In an article unrelated to the intelligent design debate, USA Today writes

Last month, a federal judge ruled that the Dover, Pa., school board acted unconstitutionally in requiring science students to learn the "intelligent design" theory of life's origins along with evolution. Intelligent design is the idea that some forms of life are so complex that they must have been shaped by a designer who is left unspecified.

This is a ridiculous distortion for two reasons. First, USA Today does what the Dover board explicitly did not, namely identify intelligent design as a theory, I'm sure much to the chagrin of science-friendly readers. More importantly, the Dover policy, as I've reminded readers multiple times, did not require the teaching of intelligent design at all.

Is it really too demanding of professional reporters to at least have some basic clue of what they write about?

Nikon Abandons Film

This is the beginning of the end for traditional film photography. Nikon will stop selling film cameras this summer, except for some very high end models, to focus on digital photography.

DNA in VA Execution

Last week, I mentioned an effort in Virginia to use DNA testing to exonerate a man who was executed in 1992. The results are in, and it turns out he was guilty.

Times That Try Men's Souls

David Schribman has an interesting piece on a survey of historians, asking them to rank the most trying times in US History. The current time, whose immense gravity most Americans accept and which the president uses to justify his power grab, is nowhere near the top. I've written before on the myth that the world somehow dramatically changed on Sept. 11, 2001. The simple truth is nothing changed on 9/11. Terrorists were trying to attack the US long before then, and still are. The only difference is that 9/11 made Americans aware of the fact pretty dramatically. That attack is just a terrible anomaly. Americans need to get that through their heads and stop giving in to fear and handing over too much power to the government.

Evangelicals and Israel

This is more about Christian theology, so perhaps more appropriate on my other blog, but since I ripped Pat Robertson here recently for his stupidity on Israel, I'll post here. Sullivan links to a document written by many Christian theologians, examining the claim by some, including Robertson, that the Bible commands unequivocal support for Israel. I've always found those arguments seriously flawed, reflecting some serious misunderstandings of the Christian faith, and the authors of this document seem to agree.

A Heart, No Matter How Small

Emily Bazelon analyzes Judge Alito's decisions over the years that have favored the so-called "little guy." She concludes he has occasionally done so, but only with great reluctance.

In almost none of these cases, though, does Alito seem like a little-guy champion. He seems like a judge who dutifully follows the law. When the law instructs him to find for the criminal defendant or the plaintiff, he does so. When you get to the Supreme Court, though, you get to rip up the instruction manual and rewrite it. There's very little in Alito's record that suggests his revisions will favor the little guy. And a lot that suggests they won't.

In other words, he will only side with the little-guy when the law requires him to. A judge issuing decisions that comply with the law? What is the world coming to?

This is a clear demonstration of the liberal idea that the courts should be used to fix, rather than interpret, the law. Excuse me, the courts should be used to "rip up the instruction manual [a.k.a. the law] and rewrite it." Who needs democracy with judges like that?

NFL 2005 Divisional Playoff Predictions

Last week went exactly as I had predicted. The pretenders and not-yet-ready-for-prime-time teams were exposed. Of course, that makes this week even harder because the fluff has been taken out, leaving only the truly deserving teams.

Onto this week....

Redskins @ Seahawks
That Washington defense sure is good. Wow. Beyond that, what I liked about the Redskin last week was simply that they found a way to win. The offense, so potent much of the season, did next to nothing. Forced out of their typical game plan, they adapted and found a way to win. So many teams fall apart if they can't play their game. This is especially true of high powered offenses. Witness the Greatest Show on Turf Rams or the Colts against the Patriots. With their big offense taken away, they didn't know how to play or what to do. The ability to adapt is one of the things that makes for championships. Washington's defense is good enough to really disrupt the Seahawk offense. Can the Seahawks adapt?

The two teams met early in the regular season, with the Redskins taking the win. Seattle proceeded to win the next 11 games, only losing the meaningless season finale with the backups. The Redskins, on the other hand, lost 6 of the next 8 games, a slide that resulted in their slot as the 6th seed in the playoffs rather than something much higher.

I haven't seen much of Seattle this year so I really don't have a good feel for the team. I know they are solid on both sides of the ball, and are rested. They also have a nice home field advantage, if for no other reason than they are the only playoff team in the Pacific time zone, and the 'Skins have to come all the way across country for the game. Prediction: Seattle.

Patriots @ Broncos
Fortune has smiled on New England, giving them the best path through the playoffs they could have wanted. First they got the Jaguars, certainly the worst team in the AFC playoffs. Now they get Denver. Not that Denver's a pushover. They just aren't the Colts.

The two teams met earlier in the year, of course, and Denver came away with the win thanks to aggressive passing from Plummer, attacking the vulnerable Patriot secondary. The Patriots are a better team now, with Seymour and Bruschi back on the field. But that secondary is still weak, and Denver can light it up in the passing game. New England can somewhat mask that weakness with their superb pass rush up front. But that may not work against Denver, because flushing Plummer from the pocket and making him throw and make plays on the run plays into his strengths as a quarterback, unlike most others.

A lot of commentators are taking New England in this game. I would like to (I am, after all, a Patriot fan), and I have wrestled with the pick all week, but I cannot go along. I see Denver's offense having more success against the New England defense than the Patriot offense will against the Bronco defense. Denver has the better running game, and the Patriot weakness in the secondary will allow more big pass plays. Perhaps not as many big pass plays as last time, but enough. Prediction: Broncos.

Steelers @ Colts
This should be a very good game. Both teams have what it takes to beat the other. The Steelers win by beating the opposition into submission. They start with Fast Willie Parker, keeping the opposing defense on the field for long stretches chasing down this elusive runner. In the second half, when the defense is starting to gasp for air, they bring out the sledgehammer known as the Bus to mercilessly bludgeon the unlucky defenders until they roll over and say no màs. This is how they beat the Bengals last week, and how you beat the Colts. Keep Peyton and company on the sidelines with long possessions dominated by the running game, and blitz him like mad when he's on the field. This approach has been patented by the Patriots. The way to counter the Steeler game is to jump out quickly on offense and force the Steelers to play from behind, which takes away some of the running game and makes them try to win with the passing game. This is how Indy won the regular season matchup, and what Cincy tried to do with the second play of the game being a 60+ yard pass play.

For this game, everything points in favor of Indy. They were the best team in the league all season, the key players are all healthy, and they are well rested after the bye. What I don't like is that they haven't played a meaningful game in a while, not since the Chargers spoiled the run to perfection, and the starters haven't played a strong game for even longer, not since the week before the Charger game. And one still has to wonder just how much Dungy has his mind in the game, with his son's death still an open wound.

The Steelers have been playing in playoff mode for several weeks, knowing they had to pretty much run the table after the loss to the Bengals to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh may well be the best 6th seeded team in recent memory.

Does that all mean I'm going for the upset? There's a chance, but I have to go with Indy. The key offensive players are just too good, and they are veteran enough to shake off any rust they may have quickly. The Steeler defense hasn't looked as great as it needs to be, losing to both Indy and Cincy in the regular season. They were just unable to keep up with the high power attack both teams brought, nor to slow it down on defense. Overcoming the Bengals last week was good, but it was the Kitna Bengals, not the Palmer Bengals. And the Bengals are not the Colts. So I am going against both of my teams in these playoffs. Prediction: Colts.

Panthers @ Bears
The regular season matchup between these two teams is the game that put Chicago on the map, showing they could play with the big boys in the league. I, like most everyone else, took the Panthers in that game. I still have to. Both teams feature stellar defenses, so the pick comes down to who has the better offense. The answer is easy: Carolina. The Bears run well, but their starting QB has played a total of 6 quarters this season, with total production of 1 TD, 2 INT, and about 250 yards. (Orton had that many TD passes in the just the first matchup between the two teams.) The man has barely 1300 yards passing and 4 TDs in his career! As I said last week, Lovie Smith made a huge mistake not playing Grossman in the season finale. There was little value in resting a guy who has barely played, and has rarely even suited up, in the last 15 months. All he will get for it is a whole lot of inexperience and a bit of rust on what little experience Rex does have. If the Panther offensive line can do a better job keeping the pass rush off Delhomme than they did in November, Carolina will take it easily. Prediction: Panthers.

Last Week: 4-0
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 4-0

Nothing to See Here

I've been subscribing to the Nothing to See Here blog for a while. He's been publishing a travel log of his trip to Paris, along with some really good pictures at Flickr. I've been to Paris a few times myself, and it is the best city in the world. So full of atmosphere, just walking around is an experience. Seeing his pictures brings it all back to me.

Christian Idiot

Green Day made a lot of money on American Idiot. Now Pat Robertson gives us the latest chapter in the saga of the Christian Idiot. His latest jaw-dropper is that Israeli PM Sharon's stroke is divine punishment for dividing Israel. Apparently, Robertson feels "God has enmity against those who 'divide my land.'" Interesting. According to the Bible, who was the first to divide Israel? God (1 Kings 11:11). So Robertson believes God is, what, filled with self-loathing? Perhaps Robertson can set up a meeting between God and Dr. Phil to help with the Lord's self-esteem issues. Thanks Pat. What would God do without you?

(And the statement to which Robertson refers is Joel 3:2, which refers to the judgment of the nations that had invaded and conquered Israel, took away its people as slaves, and corrupted them, something that does not apply to what Sharon is doing or has done.)

Robertson spokeswoman Angell Watts said of critics who challenged his remarks, "What they're basically saying is, 'How dare Pat Robertson quote the Bible?'"

No, it's just how dare Pat Robertson butcher the Bible in order to advance his own political cause and notoriety. Anyone can quote the Bible. It take a little discernment to quote it in a sensible way.

NFL 2005 Wild Card Predictions

The second season is upon us. I did pretty well with my picks in the regular season, finishing 165-91, an improvement over last year and good for 95% percentile in the Yahoo Pro Pick'em contest.

The Bears aren't playing this week, but what was Lovie Smith thinking by resting Rex Grossman. He has played six quarters this season, in fact only six quarters since late September 2004. I think he is rested. Grossman is easily the least experienced quarterback on his own team. What he desperately needed was playing time, especially if he is to bear a bigger burden of the offense than Orton did. I have a feeling that decision could end up biting Chicago next week.

In looking over the matchups this weekend, I am struck by the youth at quarterback. Simms, Manning, Leftwich, Roethlisberger, and Palmer are very early in their careers, all from the 2003 and 2004 draft classes. Even Tom Brady, for all his success and fame, is only in his sixth year.

But for now, onto this week...

Redskins @ Bucs
Both teams are known for their defenses, so this should be a fairly low scoring game. In fact, this is a pretty even matchup, with both teams strong on defense and run offense. The difference, then, is passing and the edge has to go to Washington. Simms has had a good year, and the quarterback situation in Tampa is as intriguing as ever with Simms vying with former starter Brian Griese for the starting gig. But he is yet another very young quarterback. In fact, the Bucs are very young at both QB and RB, whereas the Redskins have veterans at both key positions and both are playoff experienced as well. Prediction: Redskins.

Jaguars @ Patriots
New England has developed back into one of the more dangerous teams in the AFC. The running game is looking more like last year's, Brady's passing can be deadly, and the defensive front is up there with the best. The secondary is still not what it should be. But Jacksonville is not a deep passing team, and Leftwich hasn't played since November which will take away even more of the passing game. Jacksonville, despite a superb 12-4 record, is the worst team in the AFC playoffs. The record was earned playing a weak schedule, which does little to prepare the team for the accelerated pace of both good opposition and the playoffs. They did beat Seattle, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, but that was early in the season, before any of those teams started establishing themselves. Since then, they have faced a heavy dose of teams like Baltimore, Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona. I do not think they are ready for a big game against a very good opponent. Prediction: Patriots.

Panthers @ Giants
My pre-season pick to win the NFC has fallen to a wildcard spot. I've been dogging them for a while. They have no one to blame but themselves, repeatedly showing themselves unable to put away the division title when they had the chance. This looks to be a fairly even matchup. Both teams have good defense, good passing, and good running. I would give the Panthers the advantage in the first two, and obviously the Giants in the last with Tiki Barber. The Panther defense, with one of the top defensive lines, is built to handle a run-oriented offense like New York. Experience does matter and, though the Giants have some players left from the 2000 Super Bowl team, the Panthers are certainly the more experienced, particularly at quarterback with Super Bowl veteran Delhomme against second year man Manning, playing in his first playoff game. The combination of experience and defensive line will prove too much for New York. Prediction: Panthers.

Steelers @ Bengals
Last year, every wildcard game was a matchup of division rivals. This year, only this game is. The teams split the regular season games, each winning on the road. In the last game, the Steelers tried to go toe to toe with the high powered Bengal offense, and came up short. Big Ben threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns, but also three interceptions. This time, they will play Steeler ball, with a heavy dose of running backs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, against a poor run defense, and Roethlisberger will get back to his more customary 20 pass attempts. And the defense will attack more and do a better job against the Bengal running attack. Controlling the ball and the clock will keep Carson Palmer and company on the sidelines and off the scoreboard. Prediction: Steelers.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 0-0

More Work for VA Governor Warner

This is a good example of what the blogosphere can do. QandO has a nice summary of a case in Virginia of a guy who may have been railroaded into a 45 year prison sentence. QandO calls for Governor Warner to look into this and issue a pardon before his term ends. The governor is already looking into DNA testing that may exonerate a man already executed in an unrelated case.

The other big case making the rounds in the blogsphere is that of Cory Maye, with coverage being led by The Agitator.

Reggie Bush, Sure Thing

With everyone already predicting Reggie Bush as the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, with the expectation that he is a "sure thing", Peter King does his best to throw a little reality into the mix:

For those who think picking Bush first overall is a one-way ticket to the Land of Enchantment, keep this in mind: It's been 48 years since a running back picked No. 1 overall helped that team win an NFL championship. Not since Paul Hornung was chosen first by the Green Bay Packers in 1957 (actually on Nov. 27, 1956) has a back won a championship with the team that drafted him. Hornung, of course, was a part of a Packers team that won four NFL titles. Running down the fate of the 11 running backs taken No. 1:

Year	Player	Team	Comment
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Cincinnati	Injuries murdered his career.
1986	Bo Jackson	Tampa Bay	Star for 15 minutes -- till he blew out hip.
1981	George Rogers	New Orleans	Good career, but had to leave N.O. to win.
1980	Billy Sims	Detroit	Finished over .500 only twice in Detroit
1978	Earl Campbell	Houston	Great player. Couldn't climb Mount Steeler
1977	Ricky Bell	Tampa Bay	One good year before dying at 29
1969	O.J. Simpson	Buffalo	Bills playoff wins in Simpson Era: zero.
1965	Tucker Fredrickson	N.Y. Giants	The less said the better
1962	Ernie Davis	Washington	Died in 1963 of leukemia at age 23
1961	Tommy Mason	Minnesota	Never ran for 80 yards in 11 NFL years
1960	Billy Cannon	L.A. Rams	Signed with AFL Oilers. Never a Cowboy

So not one of those "sure things" ever led their team to greatness. Only a couple of those guys even made a name for themselves.

Am I predicting Bush will flop? No. I have no idea. But the idea that he is a guaranteed star in the making, and that simply acquiring him will take Houston or whoever to the promised land of championships is rather silly.

Roe & Nomination Hearings

The Chicago Tribune has a pretty good article analyzing the role of abortion in Supreme Court nomination hearings. Obviously, abortion is the primary focus of such hearings, even though abortion comprises but a small portion of the Court's docket.

"It takes the focus off what the Supreme Court really does," said Lee Epstein, a law and political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis. "We don't get questions on what's maybe half of the court's docket on economic disputes. We don't get questions about anticipating future cases--the future in terms of technology and science. Nobody's thinking about them. The intense focus on abortion is distracting."

Roe v. Wade has become such a major issue because, since the civil rights movement, the courts have been viewed as the guardians of social issues such as abortion. The courts play what Senator Obama calls a "critical counter-majoritarian role," i.e. they perform the role of limiting the power of the majority as expressed in legislation. Democracy is founded on the rule of the majority, but the majority cannot always be counted on to choose correct laws, i.e. laws in agreement with the Constitution. Therefore we have the courts to oppose the power of the majority when necessary.